Fragile Ceasefire Between Israel & Iran
Delicate Truce announced between Israel and Iran Chaos After 12 Days of Tension
Following almost two weeks of aggressive bombing campaigns, drone attacks and worldwide concerns of a wide-ranging war in the region, Israeli and Iran announced a tentative ceasefire. Baked by the United States and with a hushed drumbeat of European Union and Qatari endorsement, the truce became effective at the early part of Tuesday morning a.m- however, both parties have already declared contravention.
U.S. Triumphs in Doctoring Diplomacy
Ex-U.S. President Donald Trump who led the negotiations in the cessation of hostilities said in an address on television:
The strife is ended. No one will get injured. The world is looking and peace can be.
The contribution of Trump to the ceasefire has been quite controversial and controversial. His admirers in the Congress have speculated of nominating him to Nobel Peace Prize, and his opponents criticize his earlier order of military attack on the Iranian nuke sites without the congressional authority.
Background: Two weeks of War
The truce is following 12 days of increasing aggression which encompassed:
The Israeli airstrikes inside Iran including the assassination of a top Quds Force leader.
The missile and drone attacks of Iranian cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa in Israel.
U.S air strikes at nuclear installations in Iran i.e. Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan- destroying Tehran uranium enrichment program.
Each nation had casualties with dozens of people killed and hundreds injured even among civilians.
Violations of a Ceasefire Cited
Less than a day after the adoption by the truce, both Israel and Iran hurled accusations against each other of breaching the truce:
Israel said that two drones which had been flying over the Negev desert were shot down over Iranian territory.
Iran claimed that Israeli fighter jets had crossed the Syrian airspace, attacking an Iranian-linked convoy belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
These premature fightings have increased fears that the truce could not be long lasting
The Soviet Invasion and the World Response Reaction Cautious Optimism
World leaders have taken the truce with hesitation and called both parties to exercise restraint:
UN Secretary-General Antnnio Guterres called the accord "a momentous achievement" and cited the fragility of peace established on unresolved hostility.
NATO leaders, who are already holding their meeting in The Hague commended U.S. diplomacy but also pointed out that something more is needed to avert any escalation in future.
Russia and China, despite being known to be critical of the actions deployed by the U.S military, were supportive to the continuity of the ceasefire.
The oil markets reacted instantly: Brent crude was down more than 3 per cent and the world stock markets were heading towards recovery.
What is Next?
The guns are silenced, at least temporarily but the future is unclear. There is a main question to be asked:
Will Iran seek to recreate her devastated nuclear plants?
Is it possible to send international observers to check compliance with ceasefire?
Will there be new negotiations over Iranian nuclear program?
Dealing with a lack of a larger diplomatic framework, analysts caution that the current ceasefire may have just been a temporary halt to a more long-term conflict.
A Hope Moment
In urban centres as diverse as Jerusalem and Tehran, civilians jaded by years of war were met with the peace with trepidation. Online videos revealed children going back to school and civilians clearing up the bombed areas.
Even though political tensions are high, the ceasefire shows what is possible once diplomacy takes hold of the land
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